So Cal Wildfire Losses Likely Between $600 and $800m

Claims News Service, Nov. 21, 8:53 a.m. EST -- The total insured losses from the Freeway Complex, Sayre and Tea Fires in Southern California will likely reach figures between $600 and $800 million, says AIR Worldwide, a catastrophe risk modeling firm. These estimates include damage to or destruction of primary structures, their contents, and estimated additional living expenses for residential policies or business interruption for commercial properties. Additionally, AIR will dispatch a post-disaster survey team to Southern California.

"The actual fire perimeters continue to be refined as more information comes in," explained Dr. Tomas Girnius, senior research scientist at AIR Worldwide. "Similarly, there is some uncertainty with respect to the extent to which fire suppression activities have been fully effective within all three perimeters. While many homes and businesses will have survived, the number of claims is likely to be significantly larger than the number of destroyed structures, although the size of each claim for a slightly damaged home is expected to be small."

Dying winds and mild temperatures helped firefighters control the wildfires that began raging across southern California last weekend. By Thursday morning, November 20, two of the three fires were fully contained and the third -- already reduced to a slow-moving, smoldering ground fire -- was 95 percent contained.

Since the first of the blazes -- the Tea Fire -- broke out above Santa Barbara last Thursday evening, the fires have destroyed about 1,000 buildings, damaged another 300, burned through nearly 65 square miles of land, and caused the evacuation of more than 50,000 people. On Monday, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency in the four counties affected by the fires. President Bush also authorized emergency federal aid for the state. On Tuesday, the Santa Barbara County Sheriff said the Tea Fire had been accidentally caused by a bonfire built by a group of college students.

"The Southern California Santa Ana winds uncharacteristically blew only intermittently and without much strength in September and October," said Dr. Girnius. "But beginning last Thursday, they arrived with near hurricane-force gusts of 70 mph. Conditions in the Los Angeles region were dry, and temperatures were high, contributing to the ferocity of the fires."

Fed by the winds, the Sayre Fire, which began last Friday, and the Freeway Complex Fire, which began last Saturday, together burned through nearly 42,000 acres of land. Yesterday, temperatures ranged in the upper 60's and 70's, with quiet winds and increased humidity. Despite the calmer winds this morning, as evacuees return home --many to pick through the charred remnants of their belongings -- a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the Santa Ynez Mountains above Santa Barbara and along the south coast of Santa Barbara County. A new round of gusty, though less intense, northerly Sundowner Winds -- the local name for Santa Ana-type winds -- are expected to begin again just when the humidity also is expected to fall to critical levels.

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