Hurricane Ike Growing

Hurricane Ike's target zone includes properties along the Texas coast with insured value of over $890 billion, according to one catastrophe modeler, but the extent of insured losses will greatly depend on just where the storm lands.

Boston-based AIR Worldwide said today that in a recent report titled “The Coastline at Risk,” it estimates the insured value of residential and commercial properties in coastal counties of Texas exceeds $890 billion. However, AIR went on to say, the distribution of these exposures is far from uniform.

“The largest concentrations are along the northern part of the coast, near Houston,” Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR, said in a statement. “The five northernmost coastal counties, including Houston's Harris County, account for 85 percent of the total coastal exposure in Texas.”

The National Hurricane Center, AIR pointed out, has the storm taking a more southerly track, in the area of Corpus Christi, Texas.

However, forecasters caution that the models are educated guesses and these storms are difficult to predict the further out they are.

“Since all of the Texas coast as well as northern Mexico and southwest Louisiana are still within the uncertainty cone, it is far too early to predict an exact landfall location,” said Christine Ziehmann, director of model management at Risk Management Solutions.

“Ike will likely be a major hurricane at landfall, and Ike has the potential to be the worst storm to hit this part of the Texas coast since Hurricane Carla in 1961,” observed Steve E. Smith, president of Property Solutions, Carvill ReAdvisory.

“As well as damaging winds, storm surge is a particular issue for the Texas coast. Ike is a very significant threat,” he added.

RMS noted that the strength of Ike could range from a weak Category 1 to a weak Category 4 hurricane (sustained wind speed just over 131 mph on the Saffir-Simpson scale). The National Hurricane Center is calling for a Category 3 storm (sustained winds 111 mph – 130 mph).

Ike passed Cuba yesterday afternoon, leaving tremendous destruction and flooding. At least four people were killed there and a number of historic buildings were reported destroyed.

According to the National Hurricane Center's 2 p.m. report today, Ike intensified to a Category 2 storm with sustained winds at 100 mph.