Hurricane warnings remained in effect for the southwestern corner of Florida, as Tropical Storm Fay passed over Cuba heading for the Florida Keys, bringing heavy rain to the southern half of the state.
Steve E. Smith, president of property solutions at Carvill, said that Fay is currently packing winds of 60 mph. It is expected to impact the lower Florida Keys sometime late today and make landfall along the Gulf Coast in the next 24-to-36 hours.
"Fay's forecast is almost parallel to the coast, making the precise forecast of landfall impossible at this time," Mr. Smith said in a statement. "Fay will likely be a strong tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane at landfall."
He added that storm surge from Fay has the potential to "significantly impact much of the low lying Florida coast."
The forecast track has the storm moving north and making landfall south of Naples and Ft. Myers, Fla., to Apalachicola on the Florida panhandle. The National Weather Service said the storm is expected to make landfall sometime Tuesday. Tropical storm warnings were issued for eastern Florida from Cocoa Beach southward.
Carvill said it is leaning toward a southerly landfall in the Naples to Tampa region.
If the hurricane center passes over the Florida Keys, there is less likelihood of it becoming a hurricane, but it could pick up steam after crossing the Keys if it remains over water before making landfall. If Fay makes it up to the Florida Panhandle, it would reach Category 2 status, Carvill said.
Fay, which formed over the weekend in the Caribbean, passed over the narrow part of Cuba yesterday.
AIR Worldwide reported that Fay struck the Dominican Republic Saturday, with winds of 45 mph and eight inches of rain. No significant insurance loss is expected. Banana crops north of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, were destroyed, however.
Fay is taking a similar course as 2004′s Hurricane Charley, which was a Category 4 storm. Wind speeds, however, are not expected to be close to that storm.
Insurance broker Aon Corp. issued an assessment of Fay, saying that models indicate the storm should weaken after making landfall over the next five days.
According to the Insurance Information Institute:
o Seven of the 10 costliest hurricanes in U.S. history have impacted Florida, and seven of those top 10 storms occurred within just two years-2004 and 2005.
o Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was the costliest hurricane for Florida in recent years, causing $22.9 billion in insured losses (in 2007 dollars).
o Florida accounted for 22 percent of all U.S. insured catastrophe losses from 1980-2006, which equated to $57 billion (in 2007 dollars).
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