More Forecasts Of Ramped Up Hurricane Action

Researchers at the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project said yesterday that this year's Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to include nine hurricanes–one more than the team's June prediction.

The updated forecast also increased the number of intense hurricanes expected–ones that measure Category 3 or higher with sustained winds over 111 miles per hour–from four to five.

Meanwhile, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said today that there could be between 14 and 18 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to six of them being classified as “major” hurricanes.

An earlier NOAA forecast said six to nine storms could develope into hurricanes and two to five could be major ones

Colorado University's forecast came on the same day that meteorologists at Tropical Storm Risk, London, at the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, increased its forecast saying hurricane activity would be 90 percent above normal. In July it predicted activity 35 percent above the norm.

TSR also predicted that a second hurricane will hit the United States this year. Hurricane Dolly struck Texas last month.

The Colorado forecast stated that there is an increased 67 percent chance of an intense hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline. The average for the entire coastline for the last 100 years is 52 percent.

Researchers there said they changed the forecast because of a combination of weather pattern adjustments:

o An active early tropical cyclone season in the deep tropics.

o More hurricane-enhancing sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic.

o Increased sea level pressure patterns in the tropical Atlantic that add to hurricane development.

Researchers said their biggest concern with the forecast change is the consistent warming of the ocean surface in the eastern and central tropical Pacific. “Although it seems unlikely at this point, there is a possibility that an El Ni?o could develop this fall,” their forecast report said.