Boston-based catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide lowered its estimate on insured losses from Hurricane Dolly to a range between $350 million and $700 million.
After Dolly struck the Texas and Mexico border on Wednesday, AIR issued an initial insured loss estimate ranging from $300 million to $1.2 billion.
AIR said it revised the loss estimate to the low end after Dolly tracked inland on the northern edge of the range of forecast tracks issued by the National Hurricane Center at the time of landfall.
"Because wind speeds and storm surge are higher on the right-hand side of hurricane tracks in the northern hemisphere, the largest concentration of exposure in the U.S.–Brownsville, Texas–was spared the worst of Dolly's winds," AIR said.
Losses in the United States, according to AIR, will run in the $300 million to $600 million range, while losses in Mexico will range between $50 million and $100 million.
AIR said Mexico losses are uncertain because of questions about the take-up rate of insurance there, the actual number of properties insured against wind and flood losses.
Other catastrophe modelers have released similar estimates. Oakland, Calif.-based Eqecat said insured losses would be less than $800 million, while Risk Management Solutions in Newark, Calif., put its estimate at less than $750 million.
Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide, said in a statement that along the Rio Grande River levees held, but a large portion of the cotton crop was destroyed. There were also numerous reports of downed trees, shredded roofs and flooded homes.
He said flooding remains a major concern in Mexico where heavy rains, up to 20 inches in some areas was a possibility. There is also concern Dolly may spawn a number of tornados as it passes through the region.
Dolly after hitting Texas as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph has been reduced to a tropical depression with sustained winds of 30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph, according the National Weather Service's National Hurricane Center. Flooding remains a concern over parts of Mexico and Texas, the National Hurricane Center warns, but the system is currently dropping about 1-3 inches of rain.
Yesterday, President George W. Bush declared 15 counties in Texas eligible for federal disaster relief.
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