The western North Pacific will see a total of 30 tropical cyclones and 19 typhoons in 2008, according to a report put out by a reinsurance broker.
Guy Carpenter & Company, LLC, a subsidiary of Marsh & McLennan Companies, said it has released its "Updated Prediction of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity" over the western North Pacific for 2008.
The report calls for a normal to slightly above-normal year for all tropical cyclone categories for the entire western North Pacific during 2008.
This is the second report produced by the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Centre at City University of Hong Kong (GCACIC), launched in June this year.
The report says El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important predictor of the number of tropical cyclones affecting the western North Pacific and the South China Sea.
While 2007 was a strong La Ni?a year, 2008 shows a weakening of this event such that the ENSO condition is in a neutral status.
Historically, such a condition (La Ni?a becoming neutral) generally suggests a near to above normal tropical cyclone activity, whereas other predictors indicate a slightly above-normal activity, Guy Carpenter said.
"These predictions would suggest that the La Ni?a event we witnessed in 2007 is unlikely to persist for the rest of the 2008 season," said James Nash, CEO of Guy Carpenter's Asia Pacific Region. "Thus, the number of tropical cyclones is expected to be at slightly above or near normal levels."
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