Bertha, the first named storm to reach hurricane status this year, may threaten Bermuda by the weekend but is unlikely to hit the United States, according to a brokerage catastrophe modeling unit.
The forecast comes from ReAdvisory in Atlanta the analytical arm of Chicago-based Carvill brokerage.
Steve Smith, an atmospheric physicist and president of Property Solutions at ReAdvisory, said in a statement that "currently packing 90 mph winds, Bertha is tracking west/northwestward over the open tropical Atlantic."
"Bertha is expected to turn northward in the next two to three days as the strong Bermuda high shifts eastward. Bertha is likely to see some intensification, although its intensity will be bounded for the next 48 hours by increasing wind shear. Bertha is unlikely to be a threat to the U.S. but may pose a threat to Bermuda by the weekend."
ReAdvisory said Bertha was first identified as a tropical system on Thursday, forming from a tropical wave which had moved off the African coast some days previously.
Over the last 24 hours, the firm said Bertha entered a region of the Atlantic with higher sea surface temperatures allowing it to reach hurricane strength.
ReAdvisory said the most likely outcome for the storm is that Bertha remains at sea for its entire life, recurving to the northeast and dying out over the cooler water of the higher latitude North Atlantic.
However, the firm cautioned that while the majority of the model forecasts predict that Bertha will pass well to the east of Bermuda, the forecast error at this timescale (five to seven days) is large and Bermuda is within the error envelope.
If the Bermuda high is not pushed eastward by the approaching frontal system, or if the front is slow in arriving, Bertha could take a more westerly track and begin to pose a threat to the U.S. coast, the forecasters said, adding, "This is a highly unlikely scenario, but it cannot be entirely ruled out at this time–model forecasts of large-scale atmospheric circulation five to seven days out are very good but are far from perfect."
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