AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists released an early hurricane season forecast today that finds the number of storms will be slightly above average and the chances of one hitting the United States has increased.
The group, based in State College, Pa., and led by Chief Long-Range and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, said more details will be released next month.
According to AccuWeather.com the two key conditions that will impact storm frequency and direction are a waning of the La Ni?a conditions, unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, and a continued warm water cycle in the Atlantic Basin.
Mr. Bastardi said in a statement, "The warming is not uniform across the entire Atlantic. In some areas where hurricanes normally form–the central and eastern tropical Atlantic–ocean water temperatures are near or below normal. This should limit the number of storms, so we do not expect a near record high number like in the 2005 season."
But, he said, considering other factors, "the number of storms should be slightly higher than historical averages."
Mr. Bastardi explained, "The warmest waters relative to normal will be in the northern areas of the Atlantic, especially toward the North American continent. This could potentially increase the threat of major landfalls to the U.S. coast."
At the Hurricane Center, areas that have an elevated potential for landfall are determined by studying where the spread of storm tracks will center, he said.
But "even within this spread, storms can 'bunch,' creating discrete areas of increased risk," Mr. Bastardi said.
He noted that last hurricane season, the spread of the storms shifted southwest with one such bunch in the northern Caribbean. "This year, early indications show that the spread will move north and east with a target closer to the Southeast U.S."
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center announcement said meteorologists are looking at 1955, 1996 and 1999 as a few of the years showing similar weather characteristics to current large-scale patterns.
In October of 1950, Hurricane King tracked through the Caribbean, making landfall on the southeast coast of Florida. In 1995, Hurricanes Connie and Diane hit North Carolina. During the 1999 hurricane season, Floyd and Dennis made landfall in September on the North Carolina coast.
AccuWeather.com said Mr. Bastardi would provide more forecast details and insight at the May 12 Hurricane Summit in Houston, which is attended by members of industries heavily impacted by tropical weather, Mr. Bastardi's AccuWeather.com EnergyPro clients and media.
Summit registration is available online at https://wwwl.accuweather.com/hurr_summit.htm.
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