The insurance industry has one thing in common with major league baseball–both enjoy a cherished exemption from federal antitrust law. Still, baseball gets away with a lot more than insurers and brokers could ever hope to in managing their business. Indeed, imagine for a moment what insurance would be like if baseball's standard operating procedure prevailed!
For one, you wouldn't have a choice of where to work–at least until you've completed seven years of "major league" service and earned your free agency.
To start, you would be drafted right out of college. Say you were drafted out of the College of Insurance by Marsh. The broker could then assign you to their farm teams anywhere around the country, then move you up through the system until you eventually are promoted to the New York headquarters office!
Of course, you might also be traded, so don't get too comfortable, as New York's Marsh HQ might ship you off to Aon in Chicago for three promising cat modelers. Or The Hartford might send you packing to Fireman's Fund for an up and coming inland marine underwriter.
Once you go free agent, however, you'd be sitting pretty. If your underwriting, claims-adjusting or sales skills are top of the game, you could write your own ticket. You could be the A-Rod of your field.
Meanwhile, insurers and brokers could enjoy franchise protection. Sorry, Travelers, but you are not allowed to write in New York–that's AIG's territory. Fireman's Fund would control San Francisco. CNA would own the rights to Chicago.
What a crazy way to do business, but that's essentially how it works in baseball. Rather than lure the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates to play in Brooklyn, America's fourth-largest city, we are restricted to a Single-A Mets farm team (my beloved Brooklyn Cyclones) because of territorial veto rights enjoyed by the Mets and Yankees.
Obviously, I am off on this tangent because of Monday's "national holiday"–Opening Day!!! Here is how I see the coming season playing out.
–NL East: The Mets scrap their way past the pesky Phillies and fading Braves to take the division. Santana wins the Cy Young. Pedro earns a two-year extension with 16 solid wins. Carlos Beltran wins the MVP. The Marlins and Nationals barely manage 100 wins between them.
–NL Central: Sweet Lou leads the Cubs to the playoffs, after a close call against the up and coming Reds. The Brewers fade by the All-Star break, the Cards collapse by July 4, while the Pirates are out of it by Memorial Day.
–NL West: Joe Torre proves he can win without the Yankees by taking the division in a close, three-way race, beating out the pitching-rich, but hitting-poor wild card D-backs on the last day of the season, after the Padres fall behind in the final week. Colorado's championship defense quickly evaporates in Denver's thin air, while the Bonds-less Giants finish with the worst record in baseball.
–AL East: The Red Sox simply have too much depth and talent not to win 100 games and take the division by eight games over the improved but not quite ready for prime time Toronto Blue Jays, and by 10 games over the aging Yanks, who are betrayed by their pitching. (Pettite's back/shoulder/elbow all break down mid-season, Mussina proves he's through, Wang is only average and the two phenoms, Hughes and Kennedy, are only .500, but with lots of promise.) Tampa Bay finally gets out of the cellar with a decent, but inexperienced team, as former Cyclones ace Scott Kazmir wins the Cy Young. Baltimore barely beats out the Giants for worst record in baseball.
–AL Central: What talent! The Tigers earn the wild card with their modern Murders Row, but fall short for the division title against the superior pitching of the Indians. The ever- scrappy Twins, sans-Santana, still somehow manage to compete, but fade down the stretch. The White Sox fire their quirky manager after falling off the map midseason, while the Royals barely miss losing 100 games once again.
–AL West: Another tough call, but I go with the experience of the California Angels, with Vladimer Guerrero winning the MVP. Seattle, flush with pitching, finishes a close second and just misses the wild card. Oakland, in rebuilding mode, loses 90 games, while Texas loses 100.
NL Playoffs: Mets beat D-Backs, L.A. beats the Cubs, Mets take the Dodgers in 7, ruining Torre's New York homecoming.
AL Playoffs: Boston sweeps the Tigers, Cleveland squeezes by the Angels, Boston beats the Indians in 7.
World Series: Mets top Boston in game 7–the final game played at Shea Stadium–on a pinch hit home run by former Cyclones star Angel Pagan.
What do you folks think???
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