Emma Losses Could Reach $2 Billion

Insured losses resulting from Windstorm Emma, which struck Scotland, Northern England and areas of central Europe, could reach as high as $2 billion, according to the latest estimate from a risk modeler.

AIR Worldwide Corporation reported today that it expects insured losses ranging from 750 million euros ($1.2 billion) to 1.2 billion euros ($2 billion).

Yesterday, another risk modeler, Risk Management Solutions, estimated lower insured losses ranging from 300 million euros ($457 million) to 700 million euros ($1.07 billion). Mark Prindle, spokesperson for RMS, said that he does not believe the RMS figures will be revised.

AIR said it expects most of the losses to come from Germany, as the southern part of the country experienced the storm's highest wind gusts.

The risk modeler noted that while Emma was not as large as Kyrill, last season's most severe storm, it packed sustained, locally intense winds and was accompanied by severe thunderstorms.

In a statement, Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide, said, "Though Kyrill's footprint was larger than Emma's, Emma packed higher sustained winds in some locations.

"Additionally, Emma's cold front brought severe thunderstorm activity to southern Germany, which resulted in locally intense winds. As a result, localized damage to individual properties from Emma was generally higher than that from Kyrill, though less widespread."

Most of the damage to residential structures involved damaged roofs. "As expected, poorly constructed agricultural buildings suffered extensive damage, typically to roofs and windows," AIR reported. Well-engineered commercial structures generally withstood the storm, AIR noted.

Guy Carpenter's Instrat unit released a CAT-i report that put the death toll resulting from Emma at 15.