Hurricane researchers have found that a big rise in sea surface temperature can dramatically increase hurricane activity, according to a new report.
The findings came in a paper on the subject in the magazine Nature written by Professors Mark Saunders and Adam Lea. Both are based at the Department of Space and Climate Physics at University College, London.
Their report said that an increase in sea surface temperature of 32.9 degrees Fahrenheit results in an approximate 40 percent increase in hurricane frequency and activity.
The two are scientific researchers at the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre (BUHRC) at the college.
Their research also found that local sea surface warming was responsible for about 40 percent of the increase in Atlantic hurricane activity (relative to the 1950-2000 average) between 1996 and 2005.
The study they produced focuses on storms that form in the tropical regions of the North Atlantic which account for 85-90 percent of the hurricanes that make landfall in the United States.
Mr. Saunders, head of weather and climate extremes at the BUHRC, said the model they used removed the influence of winds so they were able to "assess the contribution of sea surface temperature and found that it has a large effect."
"This research is important for helping to resolve the vexed issue of how climate change will impact hurricane frequency and activity," said Mr. Saunders.
"Our analysis does not attempt to identify whether greenhouse gas-induced warming contributed to the increase in water temperature. But it is important that climate models are able to reproduce the observed relationship between hurricane activity and sea surface temperature, thus improving their reliability to model how hurricane activity will be affected by climate change," he said.
The researchers found that early indications point to an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2008, with Atlantic basin and U.S. tropical cyclones reaching landfall rising 50 percent above the 1950-2007 norm.
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