Active Hurricane Year Predicted For 2008

There is a 60 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the United States next year, according to a prediction released today by one of the leading authorities on the subject.

The Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University, led by Phil Klotzbach and William Gray, released its extended-range forecast for the 2008 hurricane season, which they said would be of above-average intensity

The researchers anticipate a total of 13 named storms in the Atlantic basin during the season that runs from June 1 to Nov. 13. Seven of those storms are predicted to become hurricanes, with three developing into major storms with sustained winds of 111 mph or more.

The prediction that there is a 60 percent chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. coastline is slightly higher than the long-term average probability of 52 percent.

For the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the probability of an intense hurricane making landfall is 37 percent. The long-term average is 31 percent. For the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle west to Brownsville, the probability is 36 percent. The long-term average for the Gulf Coast is 30 percent.

The prediction also calls for above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

“Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle,” said Mr. Gray in a statement.

In the forecast, Mr. Gray, who has been closely associated with the hurricane forecast since its inception 25 years ago, said he is stepping back from primary authorship. Mr. Klotzbach is now the lead author of the report.

Mr. Gray said he is devoting more of his time to global warming study and other issues.

On the issue of global warming, the report argues that there is no physical evidence to indicate that ocean warming is the cause of more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. The researchers argue that historical evidence indicates that a rise in ocean temperature does not follow global temperature trends.

“We should not read too much into the two hurricane seasons of 2004-2005,” the report said. “The activity of these two years was unusual but well within natural bounds of hurricane variation.”

“What made the 2004-2005 seasons so unusually destructive was not the high frequency of major hurricanes but the high percentage of major hurricanes that were steered over the U.S. coastline,” the report said, adding that the years' major hurricane events were the result of favorable air currents steering the hurricanes to the United States.

The complete report is available at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu.