Hurricane Season Not So Quiet

With the hurricane season that ended today causing few U.S. insured losses, an insurance group is worrying that the public will be lulled into being unprepared for future storms.

“We were lucky this year, and the heightened threat from destructive storms remains and is expected to last for a number of years to come,” said Marc Racicot, president of the American Insurance Association.

In a statement, he noted, “While the tendency after a quiet hurricane season is to do less on this front, now is the time to do more to prepare.”

Mr. Racicot said that in fact the season was an above average one, with major storms crossing the Atlantic to slam into Mexico and South America.

Bob Healy, senior vice president for marketing for the Oakland, Calif.-based modeling firm Eqecat, said insurers still need to be on guard for an active storm season for at least the next decade as the Atlantic goes through a warming cycle.

Historically, warming cycles have come and gone lasting decades or longer at a time, he said, and there is nothing to indicate that a warming cycle, which facilitates hurricane activity, is not happening now.

The current cycle began in 1995, and is still continuing, he noted. And the current indicators do not take into account the possible impact of global warming.

“It's a good indicator that something is here,” he said.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there were a total of 14 named storms this season, including six hurricanes, two of which became major storms. An average season has 11 named storms, six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

In August NOAA's forecast prediction was 13-to-16 named storms. Seven-to-nine would be hurricanes producing three-to-five major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.

“The United States was fortunate this year to have fewer strong hurricanes develop than predicted,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's climate prediction center. “Normally, the climate patterns that were in place produce an active, volatile hurricane season.”

NOAA noted that one hurricane, one tropical storm and three tropical depressions struck the United States, with Hurricane Humberto hitting the upper Texas coast on Sept. 13.

The Colorado State University hurricane forecast team, led by hurricane expert William Gray, called this season's results average. The team overpredicted this year's hurricane season–the second time in two years successive years and the third time in nine years.

Both the Colorado State University hurricane forecast team and Mark Saunders at Tropical Storm Risk plan to release their first long-range hurricane forecast for 2008 on Dec. 7. NOAA said it will issue its outlook for 2008 in May.

However, the United States was not spared catastrophe losses related to weather events. The Institute for Business & Home Safety said insured catastrophe losses are approaching $5 billion for this year–$500 million from Hurricane Humberto. Other events are related to tornadoes, hail, flooding and wildfires.

The IBHS said the nation's prolonged drought conditions could leave many regions facing the threat of strong winds and wildfire.