California Fires Could Equal 2003 Disaster

Thousands of firefighters were battling California forest fires today in an environment catastrophe experts said has the potential to equal the record blazes that hit the state in 2003.

“All the conditions are conducive. Thousands of properties are at risk,” said Neena Saith, a catastrophe response analyst with Risk Management Solutions, a catastrophe modeling firm.

However, Ms. Saith said it was too early to tell whether there would be a repeat of four years ago–when insured loss hit $1.1 billion after 4,847 structures were burned by the worst fires ever to hit the state–but a number of dangerous factors are at play.

Seasonal Santa Ana winds, with gusts that forecasters say could reach 85 miles-per-hour were, whipping a dozen blazes throughout the state, she said.

“Those winds and warm temperatures and dry conditions are the perfect conditions for explosive fire growth,” she noted.

Ms. Saith and Glen Daraskevich, vice president of research and modeling at AIR Worldwide, both noted the threat to some of the area's most luxurious homes, including multimillion-dollar mansions in the coastal community of Malibu.

AIR Worldwide said the fire in Malibu was believed to have been ignited by a downed power line late Sunday morning, spreading more than 2,000 acres by nightfall, destroying 25 structures, including the Malibu Presbyterian Church and Kashan Castle–a well-known venue for charity events.

About 1,500 people have been evacuated in the Malibu area and the fire had not been contained by this afternoon. Ms. Saith, based in California, said when the day began there were 30,000 acres reported aflame in the state, and within six hours the figure had jumped to 80,000 acres.

Steve Jakubowski, executive vice president with Aon Re Global's Impact Forecasting unit, said the combination of low humidity, high temperatures, dry vegetation from a continuing drought and the screaming winds means “the potential is there for another 2003 [event]. The weather's all there, the setup is all there.”

Of greater concern than the Malibu fire, he said, is the blaze dubbed the Witch Fire, northeast of San Diego, which has “a haunting similarity to the Cedar fire of 2003.” Already, he said, the Witch Fire has caused the evacuation of 250,000 people.

According to AIR, the Witch Fire entered San Diego city limits early Sunday morning, not long after igniting. Meanwhile, about 70 miles southeast of San Diego, the Harris Fire burned more than 20,000 acres of land by Sunday night.

Elsewhere in California, fires were burning in Orange, Ventura and Santa Barbara Counties. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency in seven counties.

“Damage from wildfires ravaging California this week highlight a recent trend–in the past few decades, there has been a clear tendency for increased property loss due to wildfires,” said Mr. Daraskevich of AIR. “This is a direct consequence of rapid construction growth in the wildland-urban interface–a region where primitive, undeveloped forest meets urban expansion. Losses from this week's wildfires, in the luxurious Malibu community in particular, are likely to reflect this trend.”