Prediction: Hurricane Dean Islands Loss Up To $3 Billion

Hurricane Dean insured losses for the Lesser Antilles islands to Jamaica could range from $1.5 billion to $3 billion, but the storm will likely miss the United States, modeling firms and forecasters said.

The loss estimate came from Oakland Calif.-based Eqecat, which said the majority of the loss would be in Jamaica.

AIR Worldwide in Boston said despite the fact that Dean's center will remain offshore, Kingston, Jamaica would feel the effects of strong hurricane force winds and battering waves.

AIR said the current forecast track for Dean takes the storm well south of coastal Cozumel in Mexico and into a relatively sparsely populated stretch of shoreline.

Justin Cox, Research Scientist/Meteorologist at AIR, said models indicate "Dean's second and final landfall will be in Mexico, well away from offshore interests along the Texas coast."

ReAdvisory, the analytical arm of London-based Carvill brokerage, said landfall is likely to be south of Cancun/Cozumel.

Dean, said ReAdvisory, will likely weaken significantly over the Yucatan before emerging into the Bay of Campeche and probably re-strengthen to a Category 1 or 2 hurricane before making a final landfall along Mexico's Veracruz coast. It is unlikely that Dean will pose any threat to the U.S. coast at this time, said Carvill.

Last week weather forecasters were saying the hurricane could threaten the Gulf Coast of Texas by Wednesday.

Peter S. Dailey, director of Atmospheric Science at AIR Worldwide in Boston, noted that Hurricane Ivan, in 2004, took a similar path as Dean is taking when that storm hit Jamaica as a Category 4 storm, causing extensive damage to some structures.

He cautioned that the models are not in complete agreement on the track, and even though it is projected as heading toward the Yucatan peninsula, there are factors that could affect its intensity.

Steve Smith, senior vice president with ReAdvisory, said Dean's passing Jamaica would determine some of its future intensity. A hurricane hitting Jamaica can have its strength diminished by the island's mountains.

This article updated Aug.20, 9:40 a.m.