A government study has found a need for improved methods of predicting storm-surge damage to protect against weather catastrophes, a federal official told an underwriters group here.
Indeed, a better prediction of storm-surge heights will help officials determine what building standards should be enforced for any particular site, according to Stephen Cauffman, with the National Institute of Standards and Technology.
Mr. Cauffman–leader of the Structures Group in the materials and construction research division of the Building and Fire Research Laboratory–made his comments to the Inland Marine Underwriters Association annual meeting while outlining the recommendations of a U.S. Commerce Department group. He said the study unit he took part in was formed to make findings after the record damage and losses inflicted by the 2005 storm season.
Mr. Cauffman led NIST's reconnaissance of damage following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita–a response that included 26 experts from federal agencies, the private sector and academia.
"What we will do is look at a variety of storms, different approach angles [and] wind speeds, so we have a database," he told IMUA attendees. "We are working now with about 10,000 storms for a particular area so we can develop the methodology to better predict storm surge."
The Saffir-Simpson scale that gauges size of hurricanes has a side measure of storm surge, but it is not used in predictive modeling at the present, he noted.
"We already have standards for design to deal with this, and we just have to use them properly," Mr. Cauffman added.
For example, if the new data indicates that an eight-foot storm surge is likely where before it was set for five, "then you will want to elevate your structure even more," he said.
The project is being coordinated with the new flood-mapping project being undertaken by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, he explained.
Among the lessons learned by the NIST investigators, he related, is that certain portable classrooms in Port Arthur, Texas, survived the floods unscathed as opposed to other mobile structures. "If we can just look at the design from these classrooms and see what made them so strong, we can apply that to mobile home codes throughout the states," Mr. Cauffman said.
Meanwhile, Boston-based CDS Business Mapping last month announced it has added a new storm-surge report to its RiskMeter Online real-time, natural hazard risk report service. Currently, this report is available in 11 states, with more to be added this month.
The RiskMeter Online's Storm Surge report, based upon the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) storm-surge model, lets users know if a property falls within an area likely to flood from a hurricane of a specific strength, as well as the maximum storm-surge height for each category of storm.
The company said this report also improves on flaws with existing storm-surge models by providing insurers with an easy-to-use tool with more information.
Although flood maps approximate storm-surge levels, CDS said RiskMeter's storm-surge reports are more detailed and provide users with a more realistic assessment of coastal flooding.
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