Hurricane Forecast Worsens

The latest forecasts from two different weather study operations have been changed to reflect a more severe hurricane season this year.

Weather researcher William Gray predicts nine hurricanes this year for the Atlantic basin–two more than originally predicted in December.

Tropical Storm Risk, part of the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College, London, also revised its 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane forecast upward, saying the number of hurricane landfalls on the U.S. would increase from two to 2.4.

According to the April issue of the Atlantic basin hurricane forecast from Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorological Project, five of this year's storms will be intense, two more than originally predicted. The Colorado report calls for a total of 17 named storms–not all of them hurricanes.

The report from Mr. Gray and Phil Klotzbach, who is assuming primary responsibility for the seasonal forecast, says there is a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane–Category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale–hitting the U.S. coastline.

There is a 50 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula; a 49 percent chance of a major hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to Brownsville, Texas; and an above-average risk of a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean.

The researchers said the rapid dissipation of El Ni?o has lead them to predict a very active hurricane season for 2007, well above the long-term average from 1950 to 2000. The average is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes. An intense hurricane is defined as a storm with sustained winds at or above 111 mph, or Category 3.

Last year's April report predicted nine hurricanes and 17 named storms, five of them reaching intense status. The year ended up with five hurricanes, 10 named storms and only two intense hurricanes.

However, for the 2005 record-setting storm year that included Katrina, researchers at the university predicted in April there would be 13 named storms, seven hurricanes, three of them intense. The year ended with a record 26 named storms, 14 hurricanes and seven intense hurricanes.

Tropical Storm Risk said that total storm landfalls on the U.S. will be 5.1, up from 5 predicted in March. The firm is now predicting 10.3 tropical storms, 9.2 hurricanes and 4.2 intense hurricanes.

The hurricane season begins June 1.