Risk Management Solutions (RMS), a provider of products and services for the management of catastrophe risk, has released the RMS Infectious Disease Model, a probabilistic model for assessing the risk of influenza pandemics across multiple countries. The model allows life/health insurers and corporate risk managers to quantify mortality and morbidity from nearly 2,000 potential pandemic influenza scenarios, taking into account such factors as likelihood of the pandemic occurring, infectiousness and lethality of the pandemic, demographic impact, location of outbreak, pandemic life cycle, vaccine production, and national countermeasures. The model covers 31 different countries that collectively comprise more than 95 percent of the global life insurance market.
"Interest in pandemic flu has increased significantly due to the spread and lethality of the active H5N1 avian flu virus, and many fear a reassortment may occur, resulting in a human-to-human transmissible virus and global pandemic," says Derek Blum, vice president of emerging risk models for RMS.
Insurers can incorporate detailed analysis of their own specific portfolio, allowing the unique characteristics of their respective policyholders to play an important role in the risk assessment process.
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