In '07 A Hurricane Likely To Hit U.S.: Expert

There is an above-average possibility that a major hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. next year a leading weather expert said today.

Colorado State University Professor William Gray and his team of forecasters also announced they foresee an above average Atlantic-basin tropical cyclone season in 2007.

The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project predicts seven hurricanes and 14 named storms next year. "The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 125 percent of the 1950-2000 average," the report stated.

The Atlantic Basin Net Tropical Cyclone activity will be about 140 percent of the 50-year average.

Specifically the report predicts three intense hurricanes described as Category 3 or higher and eight intense hurricane days.

Mr. Gray said the forecast was based on a recently developed six-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which used 52 years of past data.

The TMP team sees a 64 percent chance of a hurricane making landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline next year, compared to average for the last century of 52 percent.

For the eastern United States including the entire Florida peninsula, the chances are 40 percent and the same figure for the Gulf Coast.

Mr. Gray was the second forecasting team this week to predict a more active hurricane season.

Two hurricanes will hit the United States next year, which will see a period of high hurricane activity in 2007, a London-based forecasting group announced.

The prediction came from Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre at University College, London.

TSR said its long-range forecast anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity will be 60 percent above the 1950-2006 norm next season.