Even though experts warn that an influenza pandemic is inevitable, many organizations have become complacent and remain underprepared for its impact, Aon experts said today.
A year after its first report, "Pandemic Influenza: Managing the risks of an invisible threat," which called on businesses to wake up to the potential risks of a pandemic, Aon released "Pandemic Influenza: Exploding the myths," the second white paper on the subject.
The new report analyzes the steps that have been taken in the past year to protect businesses against the inevitability of a pandemic and calls on them to increase their dedication toward contingency planning.
Martin Dockrill, a consultant with Aon Risk Services, who authored the report, told National Underwriter from London that even though the pandemic has had a low profile in recent media, data shows that the risk is increasing. "More people have died, it's impacted more countries, and that's typically the way it will happen," he said.
Statistics from the World Health Organization (WHO) demonstrate that the H5N1 virus, which is causing the most concern, is becoming increasingly fatal, and has now spread to 10 countries compared to just four a year ago.
Mr. Dockrill said that many larger global organizations are beginning to take the risk "reasonably seriously. They haven't put as much work into both planning and impact assessment as I would like yet, but they are beginning to listen."
Of more concern, he noted, are smaller businesses worldwide, many of which do not have risk managers.
The United States "is getting very interested and is starting to take some action," he said, adding that the United Kingdom is "strong," as are some parts of Europe and Asia. In general, less developed countries are less involved, he said.
Mr. Dockrill said that the pandemic risk has similar characteristics to earthquake or flood risks, except that a pandemic would "increase exponentially, hit a peak and then tail-off, and that's the first wave," which would last about three months. The second, more fatal wave, he said, would follow about six months later. There also could be a third wave, he said.
Unlike an earthquake, "you will not get help from outside," he added. With a pandemic, "they'll be too busy fixing their own situation, whether that be a different country, or a different state or region."
Steve Pearce, leader of Aon's pandemic task force and business continuity, told NU that many people have forgotten the severity of the 1918 pandemic. "It was horrific," he said. He cautioned that even though "we've made massive increases in vaccine and antiviral production this year, it's nowhere near enough."
Mr. Pearce noted that an epidemic would drastically increase the need for mechanical ventilators, which would be in short supply.
Because the disease affects the deep cavities of the lungs, the only way to recover from a serious case is on a ventilator, "and then it is only 50-50 in terms of a recovery. It really is a serious killer," Mr. Dockrill said.
Aon's white paper found that few businesses have any real experience internally of establishing practical and cost effective procedures sufficient to protect staff. Businesses should be looking at how they can reduce the opportunity for virus transmission in their processes and operations.
What's more, businesses cannot rely on government response, development of vaccines, or the supply of antiviral drugs to protect their people and operations.
Aon's white paper found that although some governments have contingency plans, antiviral production capacity has grown exponentially and more attention is being given to vaccine development, these do not mean the chances of a swift mass distribution of medicine are increased and that disruption to daily life is mitigated.
The white paper also demonstrated how risk managers overestimate the ability of insurers to meet client needs.
For example, insurance cover for events such as pandemics, which are inevitable, spread globally and are set to result in major losses, is difficult to obtain and if available, offers only stringent terms and conditions, according to Aon.
Mr. Pearce said that businesses should take responsibility and where possible, mitigate pandemic risks facing them. Business continuity plans must provide a tailored framework for companies rather than relying on more general government defence plans. These may be inadequate to cover business exposures or advances in vaccines and antiviral production.
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