Will Spitzer Nail Greenberg?

I am starting to have serious doubts whether New Yorks crusading attorney general, Eliot Spitzer, will ever lay a glove on Maurice Greenberg.

This week, Mr. Spitzers office announced that a number of charges were being dropped (click here for the full story) in the civil case against AIGs former chairman and CEO. (Did you ever notice that whenever there is good news, Mr. Spitzer announces it himself, while it is his Office that speaks when the news aint so good?)

Both sides were spinning heavily, with Mr. Greenbergs legal team hinting that the game was now pretty much over, while Mr. Spitzers office insisted that the core of our case remains. They are probably both right, to a point.

But regardless of what charges remainregardless of even whether Mr. Greenberg is guilty or innocentI think the odds have shifted heavily over to Mr. Greenberg.

For one, Mr. Spitzer is on his way out the door as he prepares to be anointed governor of New York come Election Day. Those running to succeed himlightweights such as Mark Green and Andrew Cuomohave neither the killer instinct nor staying power of Mr. Spitzer. I doubt either will want to pick up Mr. Spitzers hand-me-down casesespecially one likely to take years to conclude–and waste their limited resources in the process.

For another, Mr. Greenberg has nothing to lose and everything to gain by going head to head with the AGs Office. Mr. Spitzers tendency to try people and their companies in the press has already cost Mr. Greenberg what he valued mosthis position at AIG. Now, he has all the time, money and legal talent in the world to defend himself against those charges that havent already been droppedas well as to vindicate himself and clear his name.

While the Enron case demonstrated that average people are capable of sitting through the most esoteric of subject matters during a trial, I still think the AGs office is going to have a heck of a time convincing jurors about the evils of finite reinsurance. And I am not sure they are even going to try.

How do you folks think this will all come out?