Gulf Stream Gives Ernesto A Hurricane Boost

Tropical Storm Ernesto spun over a warm section of the Atlantic today and gathered strength that one forecaster said could return it to hurricane strength–if only briefly.

Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Weather 2000, a meteorological consulting firm in New York, noted that Ernesto's track took it over the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic, where the water temperature exceeded 82 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Hurricanes and tropical storms love warm waters,” he said, noting that “anything greater than 80 degrees is supportive of a hurricane.”

By Hurricane 2000's estimate, the winds of Ernesto should be exceeding 74 miles-per-hour to give it Category 1 hurricane status as it hits North Carolina.

The firm put out an alert saying the government was downplaying the storm by suggesting it would top out at 57 mph. It warned that Ernesto's effects would cause torrential flooding that “will coincide with one of the busiest travel days, and focused on and near the I-95 corridor, all the way into New England!”

Mr. Schlacter said he did not know if Ernesto would sustain itself as a hurricane, suggesting its winds might drop some as it neared and passed over the Carolinas.

Jeff Masters, a meteorologist writing on The Weather Underground (www.wunderground.com) Web site, also noted that Ernesto had gathered strength and mentioned the effects of the warm Gulf Stream current on intensification. In addition, he cited wind shear on the storm's northern edge, which he predicted “will increase, likely putting a limit on the amount of intensification the storm.”