A year after Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, a tropical storm is brewing in the Caribbean off the northern coast of Venezuela that weather watchers warn could turn into the season's first hurricane.
So far this year there have been four named storms, none of which have turned into hurricanes–and only one, Alberto, made landfall as a tropical storm.
However, the National Weather Service's five-day forecast predicts that the storm developing near Venezuela could turn into a hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico just off the northern coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
If the current storm does form into a tropical storm it would be named Ernesto, becoming the fifth named storm of the year.
This hurricane season has been quiet compared to last year, when Katrina became the 11th named storm of 2005. That year saw a record number of 27 named storms.
Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science for the catastrophe modeling service AIR Worldwide in Boston, pointed out that to date, based on the historical record, the season is right at average activity with tropical storms.
He said the next couple of months, September through October, when the hurricane season is at its peak, will determine whether or not this is an active storm season.
When he was interviewed, Mr. Dailey noted that tropical storm Debby was moving north away from land and weakening, and it seemed doubtful the storm would strengthen and reach landfall.
As for the storm that was forming in the Caribbean near Venezuela, at the time Mr. Dailey made his comments it was undetermined whether it would turn into a hurricane that could strike the United States, or fizzle out.
He said the storm, which would not receive a name until it reaches tropical storm status, was beginning to move through climate that could either strengthen it or shred it.
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