Slightly Fewer Storms This Year, Say Experts

Federal forecasters are predicting slightly fewer named storms for this year's hurricane season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said it now predicts a total of 12 to 15 named storms, down slightly from the 13 to 16 it predicted earlier this year.

NOAA said that three or four will become hurricanes--rated as Category 3, with winds up to 130 mph, or higher.

NOAA administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said this year's three named storms so far have paled in comparison to the nine that formed in the same period last year.

"But conditions will remain favorable for above-normal activity for the rest of the season," he said in a statement. "So, we are not off the hook by any means."

Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster, said that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures are once again evident, just as they have been since the current active Atlantic hurricane era began in 1995.

But the NOAA noted the "La Nina-like convection in the central equatorial Pacific during June and July of 2005" that contributed to early storms is not present this year.

Last week, Colorado State University professor William Gray also reduced the number of hurricanes forecasted from nine to seven, three to five of which will be intense.

Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not quite as warm as last year, and tropical Atlantic surface pressure is not quite as low, Mr. Gray said in a statement.

"This year it looks like the East Coast is more likely to be targeted by Atlantic basin hurricanes than the Gulf Coast, although the possibility exists that any point along the U.S. coast could be affected this year," he said.