EdNote_Aug06

I remember when I was 9 or 10, trying to stay awake well past the hour when the lights were turned out so I could switch on (without getting caught) one of those late-night ghoul-type TV programs that aired in probably every city on Saturday nights. It was great–sitting in my PJs in total darkness with the blanket pulled up to my nose and my eyes wide watching whatever spooky stuff was in store. Each show ended with the host wishing viewers “pleasant dreams” in an eerie tone that sounded almost like a question, followed by an evil laugh.

I haven't thought of those programs in some time, but lately, with a seemingly spiraling number of headlines pounding home the potential for disasters–hurricanes, wind, flood, terrorism, the dangers of global warming–I think my eyes have started bugging out again, only now I can't turn off the TV to make it all go away.

Recognizing it can't make it all go away either, Lloyd's with its 360 Risk Project “aims to generate discussion and debate in today's business environment. . . . To manage new and emerging risks to the best of our ability, the industry needs to work together better and act now. Lloyd's 360 Risk Project is designed to make a difference and to help that process,” the company states. The first series of the project is focusing on catastrophe trends, and the first recently released report is titled, “Climate Change: Adapt or Bust.” It warns insurers must face up to the growing threat of climate change “or risk being swept away.” Among the key findings, the report indicates recent natural disasters have revealed the inadequacy of capital and pricing models and advises the industry must take a new approach to underwriting, looking ahead rather than relying on history.

On the positive side, there's been a flurry of varied activity. Catastrophe modelers are reevaluating the extent of damage already done and revising their estimates along with their models for the future. On a related scientific research front, CloudSat, a group of satellites developed by Colorado State University researchers and NASA, was launched in late April. Its mission is to measure properties of clouds essential to understanding Earth's weather and climate processes. Could this impact long-term precipitation models?

As for insurers, there's much to keep them up at night (see “Blowing in the Wind,” p. 10). One major issue is getting accurate, integrated data to calculate risk. A second concern is making certain the business users actually are obtaining what they need–i.e., aligning business and IT. Third, models must address an ever broader range of assumptions–from government response to the post-disaster chain of events. And finally, to avoid nasty surprises, risk management should get to the enterprise level (for more, see “The Path to Success,” p. 14). All are complex projects that can be tackled a piece at a time.

Having survived past catastrophes is no reason for complacency. While insurers may like doing business as usual, to ensure having truly pleasant dreams, they need to be able to do business when it's not.