The upcoming hurricane season "looks very average," according to an assessment by an atmospheric physicist released yesterday.
That forecast came from Steve Smith, senior vice president at Chicago-based ReAdvisory, a service of Carvill, the specialty reinsurance intermediary.
While many meteorologists have determined this hurricane season will be active–with the Tropical Meteorology Project projecting the chances of a massive hurricane reaching the U.S. coast to be around 82 percent, about 30 percentage points higher than average–Dr. Smith sees the current season in line with the 1971-2000 seasons.
According to Dr. Smith, "The important factors imply that the overall level of activity is to not be significantly different than average (10-12 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes)."
The Atlantic sea surface temperatures are average–"in fact, slightly cooler in some areas"–and the "windshear is decaying in line with expectations." These measurements are "not the massive deviation that we saw last year," which led to the hyperactive 2005 season.
Dr. Smith adds, however, that statistics "can change on a regional basis," and "the data isn't conclusive yet."
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