Insurers Worried By Huge Calif Forest Fire

Insurance groups said today they could not immediately tell if the forest blazes roaring through San Bernardino County in California have created an insurance loss catastrophe.

Candysse Miller, executive director of the Insurance Information Network of California, said she understood that between 40 and 45 homes and 110 additional structures–which were most likely garages or barns, but could involve businesses–have been destroyed.

More than 48,000 acres are reported to have been consumed by the flames that have burned since last Sunday. Yesterday, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger issued a State of Emergency for San Bernardino, declaring that “the fires have continued to expand and create a situation of extreme peril for the residents and businesses of the county.”

Ms. Miller said that while firefighters had the blaze 20 percent contained, the property losses could increase if the fire jumps to the expensive resort community of Big Bear, which is filled with stands of dead trees, killed off by bark beetles, which would turn into torches if they are hit by flames.

Three years ago in San Bernardino, the Cedar fire event cost an estimated $1.6 billion in insured property losses, according to Dave Dasgupta, a spokesman for Insurance Services Office, Inc. in Jersey City, N.J.

Mr. Dasgupta said ISO's Property Claim Services unit is monitoring the California fire activity, but has not yet found it to be a catastrophe. PCS declares a catastrophe for events involving $25 million in insured property losses.

ISO said that historically, catastrophic wildfires have caused extensive damage to property and significant disruption to the lives of property owners.

In 2005, more than 8.5 million acres burned nearly twice the 10-year average. With more people living closer to brushfire areas–which also happen to be preserves of privacy–the exposure has nearly doubled for insurers between 1970 and 2000, ISO noted.

From 1990 through 2003, property losses from catastrophic wild land fire exceeded $6.3 billion. The costliest event was the 1991 Oakland Hills, Calif. fire that caused property damage of $2.4 billion in inflation-adjusted 2005 dollars.

The topography of a landscape, its elevation, direction and steepness of slope, and exposure to sunlight are factors affecting the spread of wild land fire, according to ISO.

ISO said many insurers are evaluating fire exposure with sophisticated geographic information systems–among them ISO's own “FireLine,” which can focus on three key wildfire risk factors (slope, fuel and road access) to assess the overall hazard rating for each property, down to the street address.