A hardware upgrade of the nation's weather satellite system could possibly predict the arrival of weather catastrophes 15 percent earlier, according to a government report.
The study, which was prepared by the Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services, said a multifunction phased-array radar can do a better job of weather forecasting. However, it noted that an analysis is needed to determine if making the change would be cost effective.
The current system, operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which monitors the atmosphere through ground stations, radar, balloons and national satellite systems, would be upgraded to a more accommodating data-collection system this way.
Statistics about atmospheric pressure, wind patterns, temperature and water vapor are then analyzed by a computer using mathematical equations that predict how each part of the sky will change in time.
Phased-array radar technology has been used operationally by the U.S. military since the 1970s. The electronically scanning array panels of a phased-array radar can accomplish diverse surveillance tasks much more quickly, flexibly and at higher resolution than the present mission-specific, rotating antenna systems currently in use by meteorologists, the study said.
This equipment may be able to enhance economic security and national safety by predicting weather and climate related events "10-to-15 percent" earlier than the current numerical weather prediction systems, according to the study.
In addition to protecting national security and improving the lead time on "most severe weather," this technology will assist in finding safer aviation routes by "increasing refresh rates, decreasing data latency and increasing spatial resolution," according to the study.
Another detailed analysis of the technology is necessary in order to determine if a complete transition to this type of radar is cost effective according to Dr. James F. Kimpel, the director of the National Severe Storm Laboratory in Norman, Okla.
"This study has provided an invaluable road map to evaluate the potential for phased-array technology to meet our nation's future aircraft and weather radar needs," said Samuel P. Williamson, federal coordinator for meteorology.
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