NEW YORK–Response measures for a major flu pandemic will mostly be left up to public entities and corporations, with little lead from the federal government, warned an expert epidemiologist at a pandemic seminar here.
Marc Lipsitch, a professor with the department of Epidemiology/Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, told National Underwriter that although there will be advice from the federal government, "they've made it clear that a lot of the policy and reaction will come from local governments and private individuals and businesses."
Mr. Lipsitch, who spoke at a seminar on Thursday titled "Managing the Risk of Pandemic Influenza," sponsored by the modeling firm Risk Management Solutions, noted that some countries such as New Zealand have a detailed national plan for prioritizing essential workers. In the U.S., however, decisions will be left to organizations to decide when to close, who to send home, and who's essential.
"All the big companies are thinking about this, but whether they're prepared is another question," he said.
A pandemic would evolve week by week, with the most likely scenario being "a cluster of cases like those we saw in Indonesia. Rather than fizzle out as this one appears to, it would continue to cause transmission," he said.
Depending on how fast flu outbreaks expanded, governments might respond with travel restrictions to try and contain the virus, said Mr. Lipsitch.
He noted that this course of action might buy some time, depending on how well the virus is transmitting in the initial phases. During a warning period is when "people will take it seriously," he said. Any threat also would be recognized by the World Health Organization, although its ability to report is limited.
"They are allowed to issue press reports, but they can't release data they get from governments unless they are given permission," he explained.
He said that anticipating a warning period is difficult because "we don't know how the virus will be evolving. So, there will be some period of time when it's not in other countries and it's not worldwide, and people will prepare and get their contingency plans in place as best they can."
Once it begins to spread within a country, however, "I think it will happen very quickly, within a matter of weeks."
What is the likelihood of this happening? "Nobody will give a hard number unless they're irresponsible, because they don't know," he told NU. In fact, he said, "We may be at an elevated risk now, because of the bird to human contacts, for one, but on the other hand, those factors might suggest that we've already had a lot of exposure."
Risk is hard to predict "because we don't know how to translate the warnings into numbers," he said.
What can public and corporate risk managers do to prepare? "They need to plan and then rehearse, because otherwise people forget things," he said. Without a rehearsal, he warned, it merely becomes a "tabletop exercise."
Peter Ulrich, senior vice president of RMS' model management team, told the audience that influenza has some unique risk management challenges.
"The most obvious are insurance losses to all lines of life and health and workers' compensation," he said. "But productivity is another factor if employees are not at work." He noted also that changes in interest rates and stock market values could affect insurance company assets.
One side effect of a pandemic to insurers, he added, could be a reduction in auto claims if people are not driving to work and staying home to avoid public exposure.
Another challenge to risk managers, he said, is the length of a pandemic. "An earthquake or hurricane are quick events," he said. "But with a pandemic you could be looking at two or three years if there is an outbreak. These highlight the need to take care of risk management at the front end."
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