The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration released its outlook for the Atlantic and Central Pacific Hurricane season, saying it predicts the Atlantic will witness a very active hurricane season, while the Central Pacific will be slightly below average.
Making the announcement on its Web site (www.noaa.gov), NOAA is predicting 13 to 16 named storms, with eight to 10 becoming hurricanes. Of these, four to six could become major hurricanes. The average is 11 named storms, six becoming hurricanes, of which two would be major hurricanes–defined as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale (wind speed of 111 mph and higher).
NOAA noted that last year's hurricane season, a record breaker in terms of insurance losses at $56.8 billion, produced 28 named storms, 15 of which were hurricanes and seven classified as major.
Warmer ocean temperatures, along with weak easterly trade winds and other changes in the wind pattern are conspiring to develop another very active season. NOAA said the conditions are indicative of a multidecadal signal, which has existed since 1995, signaling above-normal activity.
In the Pacific, NOAA operations in Honolulu predict a slightly below average season with two to three tropical cyclones. A typical year is four to five.
“Whether we face an active hurricane season, like this year, or a below-normal season, the crucial message for every person is the same: prepare, prepare, prepare,” said Max Mayfield, director of the NOAA National Hurricane Center. “One hurricane hitting where you live is enough to make it a bad season.”
The hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.
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