Threat Of Northeast Hurricane Strikes Grows

A commercial weather service has issued a prediction that the Northeast coast of the United States will be the target of a major hurricane that could hit this year.

“The Northeast is staring down the barrel of a gun,” said Joe Bastardi, chief forecaster of the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, in a statement. “The Northeast coast is long overdue for a powerful hurricane, and with the weather patterns and hydrology we're seeing in the oceans, the likelihood of a major hurricane making landfall in the Northeast is not a question of if, but when.”

AccuWeather.com said that in terms of the number of storms, it expects the 2006 season will be more active than normal, but less active than last summer.

Last season saw five major hurricanes–Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and Wilma–pummel the Gulf Coast, destroying whole towns in Mississippi and causing ruinous floods to New Orleans. According to the Insurance Information Institute, the last three storms combined accounted for $51.5 billion in 2005 insured losses.

AccuWeather.com said it has identified weather patterns that indicate which U.S. coastal areas are most susceptible to hurricane landfall.

The current weather pattern, they said, is similar to the pattern that produced the 1939 hurricane that struck Providence, R.I., killing 600 people in an area from Long Island north to New England and causing $306 million in damage, which in today's dollars equals $6 billion.

The weather service said the storm was the strongest to ever hit the Northeast in recorded history.

According to charts on I.I.I.'s Web site, the coastal exposure for New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut in 2004 amounted to more than $3 trillion.

One insurer, Allstate, has reacted to the possibility of a hurricane hitting New York by curtailing the writing of new business on Long Island and in northern Westchester County and nonrenewing some coverage.

AccuWeather.com also warned that the upper Texas coast can expect a higher level of hurricane and tropical storm activity over the next 10 years.

“Hurricane Rita was a warning shot,” Mr. Bastardi said. That storm, which made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border, caused $5 billion in insured damage alone. “The Texas coast is in for a long period of tropical activity, particularly the region from Corpus Christi to Sabine Pass at the Louisiana border,” the forecaster said.