Long Wait For Katrina Estimates Expected

Credible insured damage estimates from Hurricane Katrina will take much longer than usual, due to the unique characteristics of the disaster, said a top insurance industry official.

Robert Hartwig, chief economist for the Insurance Information Institute, said it will be "a long process to come up with that number."

He added that, "the major modeling companies say anywhere between $9 billion and $26 billion," he said. "But I think the low end of that is pretty unrealistic."

In addition, because very few adjusters have been allowed into the area and ownership of most abandoned homes cannot be determined, the process will longer and more drawn out.

As for the residential-commercial ratio of insured losses, Mr. Hartwig said last year's Florida storms resulted in residential properties suffering about two-thirds of the destruction.

"I expect there will be a much greater component of commercial losses this time around," he said. "The city has effectively been abandoned."

While there will be a lot of covered losses from wind and wind-driven rain, much of the damage will be from flooding, which is covered under federal policies.

Business interruption coverage comes into play as a result of a covered peril such as wind-driven rain, but also due to a civil action such as an evacuation--the kind that took place in New Orleans.

In other related Katrina stories:

== Moody's reported yesterday that it expects few ratings actions as a result of Hurricane Katrina. Analyst Jeffrey Berg said most insurers are members of large geographically diversified insurance groups and U.S. personal lines carriers have benefited from favorable market conditions in the past few years. Plus the fact that catastrophe modeling has reached the point of sophistication that insurers are in a much better position to price this risk, will also ameliorate the situation.

==Standard & Poor's said yesterday that despite Katrina's punch, it seems unlikely that any single catastrophe bond will hit its respective attachment point, and therefore no catastrophe bonds ratings have been placed on credit watch.