Although it is still early in the season, this year is already a record-breaker for hurricanes, according to a study released yesterday that highlighted the unusual patterns.
Risk Management Solutions' report, titled "Early Hurricane Activity in 2005 & Outlook for the Remainder of the Season," said the 2005 hurricane season is exceptional, not only for the seven named storms formed by the end of July but also for the intensity of the two hurricanes formed, Dennis and Emily.
Both reached or exceeded a Category 3 level on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale.
The report said that while there have been six seasons since 1950 in which two or more hurricanes formed before Aug. 1, this is the first year on record with two Category 3-5 hurricanes so early in the season.
Claire Souch, manager of catastrophic response services for RMS in the London office, said the chances of several major storms this season are high.
Ms. Souch said current hurricane conditions are the result of warmer sea temperatures than usual, which generate more energy.
"This year sea temperatures are particularly warm across the Atlantic," she noted. "It has been a more turbulent season."
The large number of storms that made landfall last year was unusual, she commented. That situation was caused by the formation of a Bermuda high, which helped guide hurricanes toward Florida in August and September. The Bermuda high has not formed this year, she said.
Ms. Souch added that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted between 18 and 21 named storms this season. She noted that 21 is a historical record.
The report said that there have been only four years since 1900 in which two hurricanes made landfall in the U.S. before Aug. 1, and only one year with three landfalls so early in the season.
The report said that no forecast anticipates an El Nino event, which would most likely suppress hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Therefore, it concluded, the rest of this season is likely to continue with an above-average number of hurricanes.
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