While most forecasters agree this will be an above-average Atlantic Basin storm season, there remains some disagreement as to whether their ultimate track can be predicted.
Tropical Storm Risk, a London-based storm forecaster, predicts storm activity to come in at a record-breaking 150 percent above average. Their predictions met some disagreement from forecasters at Risk Management Solutions.
TSR predicts 22 tropical storms for the Atlantic Basin (including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean) with 11 being hurricanes and seven being intense hurricanes. The average number of intense storms is two.
Paul VanderMarck, executive vice president of Risk Management Solutions, Newark, Calif., said the two factors of low wind shear and above-average sea temperatures have led to the general consensus of above-average storm activity.
While TSR predicts an 85 percent probability of an above-normal landfall incidence of storms, RMS' Mr. VanderMarck said the factors that made a storm head toward the coastline or out to sea are simply too short-term to predict with any accuracy.
"While last year was an anomaly in terms of the number of storms making landfall, there is no evidence to suggest we are at some sort of turning point in this regard," he said.
Mr. VanderMarck said that the most powerful hurricane in terms of insured losses, Hurricane Andrew, occurred in the relatively calm year of 1992.
TSR is based at University College London. Its sponsors included The Benfield Group and Royal & SunAlliance insurer.
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