Modelers Slow With Emily Forecasts

Unlike the rapid damage estimates produced for hurricanes hitting the U.S., projections for the impact on Mexico where Hurricane Emily struck the Yucatan Peninsula Monday are lagging, and modelers have yet to guess the insured loss.

By Monday afternoon, a report said the resort island of Cozumel and the resort town of Cancun had suffered little damage other than debris and power outages after Hurricane Emily struck.

The National Weather Service (NWS) said Emily struck the eastern shore of the Yucatan as a Category 4 hurricane on the five-point Saffir-Simpson scale, with sustained winds of 135 mph some time around 2 a.m. Monday.

Dr. Clair Souch, catastrophe response manager for Risk Management Solutions, in London, said the center of Emily struck the peninsula 80 miles south of Cancun, with hurricane winds extending out for 60 miles from the center.

While the firm is still in the process of putting together an estimate on the damage, she noted that the coast of the Yucatan peninsula facing the Caribbean Sea is heavily built-up. The resorts and hotels along the coast extend about 100 miles south from Cancun, creating the potential for significant commercial property exposure.

However, the hurricane's center was only 12 miles wide, which would minimize its destructive force, she suggested.

The NWS said coastal storm surge could be as high as 8-to-12 feet above normal tide levels, which could cause flooding.

For insurers, the exposures would primarily be to international chain hotels under the international arrangements, she noted. She had no information about local carriers.

After passing over the Yucatan, Emily degraded to a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 75 mph by 1 p.m. and headed toward Texas and the western Gulf Coast of Mexico. The NWS warned Emily would pick up steam as it churned through the Gulf after passing the Yucatan.

While there was some possibility the center of Emily could strike Texas, Ms. Souch said it was not likely. Nevertheless, Emily's hurricane-force winds could impact the state.

The NWS has issued hurricane watch warnings running from Baffin Bay, Texas (south of Corpus Christi), south to Cabo Rojo, Mexico (which lies between the cities of Ciudad Madero to the north and Tuxpan to the south).

Pemex, the Mexican state-owned oil company, closed oil production in the Gulf and evacuated workers from oil platforms before the storm approached.