Forecast: A Fierce Hurricane Season In '05

Forecast: A Fierce Hurricane Season In '05

By Michael Ha

NU Online News Service, Dec. 6, 4:21 p.m. EST?A well known atmospheric scientist is predicting that next hurricane season will be active with above-average named storms.[@@]

William Gray, a hurricane scientist at Colorado State University, said he is expecting 11 named storms during the six-month hurricane season that begins June 1, 2005. Mr. Gray further forecast that six of these storms would turn into hurricanes, with three of them turning intense with 110 mph-plus wind speeds.

This predicted level would still be less active than this past year's record season, which was one of the worst in modern history. This year's season produced 15 named storms that turned into nine hurricanes, with six of them turning intense. Four of those hurricanes made landfall in Florida.

Mr. Gray's forecast for the next season would still mean a higher-than-average hurricane level. In the long-term, the averages are 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes per season.

Floridians and everyone living along the U.S. East Coast, Mr. Gray warned, "should always be prepared for the possibility of hurricanes making landfall, especially during this era of increased hurricane activity."

Mr. Gray's results this past year were somewhat off the mark. Last December, he forecast that 13 named storms would develop into seven hurricanes, three of them intense. He ended up missing by two named storms, two hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.