Analyst: Bush Best For P-C, Kerry For Life
NU Online News Service, Nov. 2, 3:30 p.m. EST?As millions of voters line up at ballot boxes in one of the most hotly contested U.S. Presidential elections in history, one industry analyst is forecasting that overall, a second Bush term would benefit property-casualty insurers more, while a Kerry win would be more helpful to life insurers.[@@]
According to Brian Gardner, analyst at investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, p-c insurers stand to gain more from a George W. Bush victory, to the extent that asbestos litigation reform is more likely to be passed in a Bush administration than in a Kerry administration. Although Mr. Gardner acknowledged that the asbestos reform is "event driven" and could also be addressed in a Kerry administration, he nonetheless added that he feels "the terms of a bill would benefit insurers more if Bush is elected rather than if Kerry is elected."
When it comes to the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, Mr. Gardner said the chances of reauthorizing TRIA are "good no matter who wins the election," but he also speculated that the chances of passing the bill are "probably slightly better" if Senator John Kerry wins.
On the other hand, Mr. Gardner said, a Kerry victory would benefit life insurers, for two reasons. "First, Sen. Kerry wants to retain some form of the estate tax, while President Bush wants to eliminate it," he said. The elimination of the estate tax would curb demand for life insurers' tax-benefited products, according to Mr. Gardner.
Secondly, a win by Sen. Kerry would also squelch talk of any significant tax reform proposals, such as switching to a national sales tax that would strip away the tax deductibility of life insurance, Mr. Gardner said.
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