Ivan Not Quite As Nasty As Feared: Modelers

Ivan Not Quite As Nasty As Feared: Modelers

By Mark E. Ruquet

NU Online News Service, Sept. 16, 4:24 p.m. EDT?Modeling firm estimates of Hurricane Ivan's Gulf Coast damage yesterday were less than projected earlier in the week before the storm made landfall.[@@]

Ivan, which at times has been rated a Category 5 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, hit between Mobile, Ala., and Pensacola, Fla., as a Category 3 storm.

Last night, Risk Management Solutions estimated insured losses would range between $4 billion and $10 billion. Earlier in the week, EQECAT of Oakland, Calif., a subsidiary of ABSG Consulting in Houston, said losses could be anywhere from $3-to-$16 billion in the U.S.

By this afternoon, EQECAT was estimating insured losses at between $4 billion and $10 billion, with 30-to-50 percent of the loss in the Pensacola area.

Applied Research Associate's IntraRisk Division in Raleigh, N.C., estimated insured losses would be between $1 billion and $3 billion based on wind damage. Peter Vickery, a spokesman for the firm, said their model did not take into account storm surge and wave damage.

AIR Worldwide of Boston said its estimate was $3-to-$6 billion.

RMS was also still revising their numbers.

Ivan still managed to be deadly, with reports that the storm claimed close to a dozen lives and spawned a number of tornadoes.

By 2 p.m. today the National Hurricane Center downgraded Ivan to a tropical storm.

In the Caribbean, where Ivan caused tremendous damage, insurers are still waiting for claims figures, said Nicholas Bollons, analyst and consultant for Aon out of London.

In an e-mail, he said in Jamaica many homes and property were damaged and over 90 percent of the island remains without power. Over 300 people are homeless and there is significant damage to crops and agriculture. Fifteen people died in the storm.

In the Cayman Islands, he said 80 percent of the homes in the three island chain were damaged, along with many hotels. A five-foot tidal surge caused significant flooding throughout the island. There is still no power or running water in many homes. While Ivan begins to lose its punch Hurricane Jeanne is churning towards the U.S. coast. A five-day forecase has it potentially hitting somewhere between Florida and the lower southern portion of North Carolina some time in the middle of next week.