TSR: Hurricanes Could Increase 20%
NU Online News Service, Aug. 6, 12:30 p.m. EDT–Tropical Storm Risk today increased its forecast for Atlantic hurricane activity in 2004 by 20 percent.[@@]
TSR, a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London, said it released the forecast to coincide with the start of the North Atlantic main hurricane season in August. Historically 86 percent of U.S. hurricane strikes and 96 percent of U.S. intense hurricane strikes occur after Aug. 1.
TSR's revised hurricane outlook anticipates Atlantic basin and U.S. landfalling hurricane activity being 150 percent of average in 2004.
The prediction includes:
? An 86 percent probability of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season, a 13 percent probability of a near-normal season and only a 1 percent chance of a below-normal season
? 14 tropical storms for the Atlantic basin as a whole, with eight of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes
? A 70 percent probability of above-normal U.S. landfalling hurricane activity, a 25 percent likelihood of a near-normal season and only a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season
? Four tropical storm strikes on the U.S., of which two will be hurricanes
? Two tropical storm hits, including one hurricane, on the Caribbean Lesser Antilles.
Mark Saunders, TSR's lead scientist and head of Seasonal Forecasting and Meteorological Hazards at the Benfield Hazard Research Centre, said in a statement that the 20 percent forecast upgrade occurred because two key climate factors influencing hurricane formation during August and September have become enhanced for activity during the past month.
These factors are the expected values in August and September 2004 for the speed of the trade winds which blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and the temperature of the sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean where many hurricanes develop. The former influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region, while the latter provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms, according to TSR.
"Enhanced hurricane activity occurs with weaker than normal trades and with warmer than normal waters, Mr. Saunders said. "Since forecast accuracy increases with the approach of the hurricane main season we have greater confidence in this outlook than in our earlier forecasts."
While damage from U.S. striking tropical storms and hurricanes between 2000 and 2003 has been 80 percent below average, Mr. Saunders warned against complacency.
"Historically one in four of all Atlantic hurricanes have struck the U.S.," he said. "However, over the past four years this ratio has fallen to just one in nine. This situation must soon correct itself and when it does we will witness far greater damage and disruption."
He added that it is 90 percent certain that landfalling storms and damage will be higher during 2004 to 2007 than during the last four years.
Hurricanes rank historically above earthquakes and floods as the U.S.'s most expensive natural disaster, TSR said. The average damage bill per year from hurricane strikes on the continental U.S. 1950-2003 is estimated to be U.S. $ 5.1 billion (economic cost) and U.S. $2.6 billion (insured cost) at 2003 prices and exposures.
TSR's forecast track record successes includes those for the 2002 and 2003 Atlantic hurricane seasons; the 2002 and 2003 Northwest Pacific typhoon seasons; and for the 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 Australian-region tropical cyclone seasons.
TSR forecasts may be accessed at www.tropicalstormrisk.com.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.