A Double Warning On Hurricane Threat

TSR said it is 90 percent probable that storms and damage will be higher over the next four years than between 2000 and 2003.

Hurricane season for the Atlantic runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, with activity increasing in August and the peak of the season coming in the second week of September.

TSR said it is warning insurers and ordinary citizens not to become complacent because insured losses due to hurricanes making landfall in the United States have been running 80 percent below average since 2000.

Mark Saunders, TSR lead scientist said, "People living along the Atlantic Seaboard and Gulf Coast should remember that the hurricane threat remains as great as ever and may be even more severe in the near future."

TSR notes that historically, 6.4 hurricanes strike the United States in a four-year timeframe. But in the past four years, only three hurricanes have made landfall resulting in lower-than-usual losses for the period. "Normally you would expect between six and seven to hit," said Mr. Saunders.

The historical average hurricane insured loss over a four-year period is $11.6 billion, according to TSR.

Mr. Saunders said a TSR chart of activity between 1900 and 2003 shows that for the past four years the number of hurricanes hitting the United States is at the second lowest four-year level ever. The previous low point was from 1980 to 1983, when there were only two.

The most intense period of activity occurred between 1933 and 1936, when there were 12 hurricanes.

According to Mr. Saunders, the latest hurricane dry spell can't last and the number of hurricanes coming ashore must return to normal. When they do return, he said, they may be more severe than usual. Hurricane activity "continually oscillates back and forth between high and low hurricane activity," he explained.

TSR noted that the decreased activity of the early 1980s was followed by eight land-falling hurricanes in 1985 and 1986.

Total insured losses from hurricanes since 2000 has been just $2.4 billion.

TSR said its early June projections for the 2002 and 2003 hurricane seasons both proved correct with one U.S. hurricane strike seen in 2002 and two in 2003.

Chubb said that storm experts forecast a 71 percent chance of a major storm hitting the U.S. coast this year with the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration predicting eight to 12 Atlantic hurricanes. If this holds true, Chubb noted it would be a three-to-fourfold increase over last year.

"That's alarming news, especially for those who have built homes along the rapidly developing U.S. coastline," said Scott Spencer, worldwide appraisal manager, Chubb Personal Insurance.

Chubb cited figures from The National Hurricane Center that the value of insured property in hurricane-risk areas has risen to approximately $2 trillion as a result of increased development along coastal regions.

"It's critical for homeowners to take preventative measures now to reduce the risk of cataclysmic damages later," said Mr. Spencer. He said, in addition to putting out news releases advising homeowners on protective measures to take for hurricanes, the company counts on its agents to get the word out as well.

The company advises customers to ask their agents to make sure their home and possessions are adequately insured before a storm hits. Customers should also learn the amount they would receive in the event of a covered loss, and whether it would be adequate to rebuild.

Chubb also counsels customers to know deductible amounts and any special policy provisions such as wind exclusions.