Active Storm Season Predicted For Australia

Active Storm Season Predicted For Australia

NU Online News Service, April 16, 11:14 a.m. EDT?A London-based forecasting group is predicting that the upcoming tropical storm season for Australia and nearby islands will see five cyclones hit the area.[@@]

The projection was made by Tropical Storm Risk, a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by the Benfield Hazard Research Centre at University College London.

The group said its prediction is its first extended-range forecast for Australian-region tropical storm activity. The cyclone season lasts from Nov. 1, 2004 to April 30, 2005.

TSR said it anticipates five tropical storm strikes on Australia in 2004-2005. For the Australian region as a whole, TSR expects 11 tropical storms, with five of these developing into severe tropical cyclones.

TSR estimated with 85 percent probability that numbers for tropical storms in 2004-2005 that make landfall will be either above-average or average and assigns only a 15 percent chance they will be below-average.

The forecasters noted the last three years have each seen below-average tropical storm activity around Australia.

Dr. Mark Saunders, TSR's lead scientist, said, "The main climate factor behind our forecast for Australian-region tropical storm activity in 2004-2005 being close to or slightly above average is the anticipated neutral effect of early Austral summer ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) sea surface temperatures in the region."

Water temperatures in the region, TSR explained, influence atmospheric vertical wind shear, which in turn affects tropical cyclone activity. The last three Austral summers have seen warmer-than-normal ENSO sea temperatures in this region leading to enhanced vertical wind shear and low tropical cyclone activity.

TSR said its recent long-range forecast successes include those for the 2001-2002, 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 Australian-region tropical cyclone seasons. For the 2004-2005 Australian season, TSR said it will issue monthly updated seasonal forecasts through to early December 2004. TSR forecasts may be accessed through the Web site www.tropicalstormrisk.com.

According to TSR, for northern Australia and adjacent southwest Pacific islands, the average storm damage bill per year 1990-1991-2000-2001 for this region was $58 million.

TSR consortium is co-sponsored by Benfield, the independent reinsurance intermediary, Royal & Sun Alliance insurance group, and Crawford & Company, claims management solutions company. The TSR scientific grouping brings together climate physicists, meteorologists and statisticians based at the University College London Benfield Hazard Research Centre.