Nine Intense Typhoons Forseen For '04

Mark Saunders, lead scientist for TSR Consortium, a part of the University College London Benfield Hazard Research Centre, said that a typhoon is categorized as a storm with sustained winds between 74 and 110 mph.

An intense typhoon is a storm with sustained winds of more than 111 mph. The storm activity prediction covers developments at sea and does not predict landfall locations, he said, adding that TSR is working on models that he hopes would be able to predict that one day.

The nations affected by the Typhoon prediction include Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and southeast China.

The typhoon season runs through the entire year, with the most active period running from the beginning of May to the end of November. July through October is the most active period and August is the peek month of the typhoon season, he said.

South Korea has been hit with the worst typhoon activity, he said. TSR said that in 2003, Typhoon Maemi hit South Korea, causing 118 deaths, $4.5 billion in economic damage and $500 million in insured losses. This was the second year in a row that the country was hit by a catastrophic typhoon.

For the past four years that TSR has been doing these predictions, scientists have not noted any variables in storm activity that can be attributed to global warming or other climatic changes, he said.

TSR said for 2003 it correctly predicted the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, but slightly overpredicted the number of tropical storms for the region. A review of the summary reports for the past years shows that the group's predictions have generally been within one to two storms of the actual events.

Additional information on the forecasts is available at www.tropicalstormrisk.com.