Above Average Hurricane Activity Forecast

Above Average Hurricane Activity Forecast

NU Online News Service, Jan. 9, 3:41 p.m. EST?This year's Atlantic weather activity will see two hurricanes hit the United States, according to a new forecast.[@@]

Tropical Storm Risk, a consortium of experts on insurance, risk management and seasonal climate forecasting led by Benfield Hazard Research Center in London, said the United States can expect a season with a level of activity similar to last year with four tropical storms, two reaching hurricane level, according to a new forecast.

The group put the likelihood of an above-average hurricane season at 70 percent, with the chance for a near-normal season at 20 percent and a 10 percent probability for a below-normal season.

Tropical Storm Risk said for the Atlantic basin as a whole it expects 13 tropical storms, with seven of these being hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

In 2004, the consortium said it is anticipating weaker-than-normal trade winds and warmer-than-normal waters, which would favor an above-average hurricane season.

Tropical Storm Risk explained that the two main climate factors that can influence hurricane activities are the speed of the trade winds that blow westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea and temperature of the sea waters between West Africa and the Caribbean, where many hurricanes develop.

Its 2004 forecast spans the North Atlantic hurricane season from the beginning of June to the end of November and is based on data available through the end of 2003.

The forecast by Tropical Storm Risk is in line with another recent assessment of possible storm activity. Last month, William Gray and his team at Colorado State University predicted above-average Atlantic hurricane activity in 2004, including seven hurricanes, three of them major.

"Information obtained through November 2003 indicates that the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one," Mr. Gray said then. Mr. Gray forecast that the probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall this year is estimated to be 30 percent above the long-period average, which utilizes 52 years of past data.