Evolving Terror Threats Added To RMS Risk Model

Evolving Terror Threats Added To RMS Risk Model

In its new, updated model, RMS explained, Al Qaeda still remains the primary threat, but the group is now seen as undergoing a rapid change to counter the U.S.-led war against terror. One of the new strategies initiated by Al Qaeda is to turn more to regional terror groups that share its ideology and operational and support activities.

The Newark, Calif.-based RMS also noted that Al Qaeda's ongoing adaptive measures will likely result in smaller-scale attacks against "more accessible economic and commercial targets."

"Compared with previous estimates released in September 2002, our updated model indicates a smaller probability of a spectacular Al Qaeda attack succeeding in the United States in the coming year," said Gordon Woo, chief architect of the RMS model.

"Target prioritization in the model also has shifted, reflecting the process known as target substitution," Mr. Woo added, "as terrorists move their focus away from well-protected government and military sites toward softer commercial sites and infrastructure targets such as bridges, rail stations and gas stations."

Additionally, the RMS model also allows analysis of coverage provided under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002. Users can analyze risk separately for TRIA-certified and non-certified events, and losses can be quantified on a gross basis, or net of TRIA recoveries.