Chicago Bio-Terror Attack Could Cost $25 Billion

Chicago Bio-Terror Attack Could Cost $25 Billion

NU Online News Service, Aug. 7, 9:17 a.m. EDT?A biological terrorism attack on Chicago would have an economic impact of from $1.75 billion to $25 billion with the highest expense if a mass home quarantine is used to contain an outbreak, according to a risk management firm estimate.

Risk Management Solutions of Newark Calif. made its calculations as a consultant to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and Los Alamos National Laboratory.

RMS said it did its analysis as part of the TOPOFF 2 (Top Officials) exercise conducted from May 10 to May 15 in Chicago by Homeland Security and the U.S. State Department, which looked at responses to a simulated outbreak of terrorist planted pneumonic plague.

TOPOFF 2 also looked at Seattle local officials response to a hypothetical "dirty bomb" attack.

RMS said its analysis found that, in Chicago, the outbreak containment cost-including business interruption losses and costs of treating the population could be as high as $25 billion when the attack response used involved shutdowns and closings of business and schools keeping 80 percent of the population at home.

The cost, RMS said, would be lower, $1.7 billion to $5.5 billion, if the bio terror was treated with a rapid delivery of antibiotics to the general population, "voluntary mass prophylaxis."

In September, the company said it will come out with Version 2 of its U.S. Terrorism Risk Mode, which will include contagious disease as an attack mode and examines likely response actions and effectiveness of civil authorities.

RMS said its model quantifies terrorist target risks across the nation under a variety of attack modes from explosives and improvised weapons to a range of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear scenarios.

The model, the company said, projects principal agents of damage and loss for each attack mode. Estimates are made of insured losses from property damage, business interruption and human casualties.