RMS Sees Israel Millennium Quake Possibility

The Jordan Valley segment of the Dead Sea Rift, RMS said, is particularly relevant because of its proximity to major cities and the high probability of generating a major earthquake.

"Based on what we know from the historical catalog, the Jordan Valley Fault generates earthquakes of magnitudes as high as seven approximately every 1,000 years," said Dr. Fouad Bendimerad, vice president of RMS. "The last major earthquake on this segment occurred in 1033, increasing the current probability of a major event."

The most recent damaging event in Israel, RMS said, was a magnitude 7.1 offshore event in 1995 that occurred 43.4 miles south of the city of Elat.

The company said that while this event provides some relevant data on building damage and ground motion, it was located far to the south of Israel's main populated regions.

RMS said that to make up for the scarcity of damage experience, its experts worked with Israelis to compile detailed information on construction characteristics, building code implementation, and vulnerability relationships.

The modelers said vulnerability relationships were validated using damage data from the 1995 event, supplemented by data from earthquakes in countries with similar construction characteristics to quantify potential earthquake losses.

RMS said it worked closely with the Geophysical Institute of Israel to compile a record of historical events spanning more than 2000 years.

This data catalog, combined with scientific research on active faults, provides the basis for understanding both the geographic distribution of earthquakes and their probabilities. Geotechnical data was also compiled for the entire country at postal code resolution, RMS said.

The company said it will hold an industry seminar about the new Israel Earthquake model July 24 at the London Underwriting Centre and those interested must register in advance. Seminar information is available at www.rms.com.