Twice As Many Hurricanes Forecast
NU Online News Service, June 2, 10:50 a.m. EDT?This year's Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began yesterday, could be of "above-average" intensity, according to forecasters at the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.
Frank Lepore, spokesperson for NOAA's National Hurricane Center in Miami, said there is a general consensus that the season, which will end Nov. 30, would be a season with above-average storm frequency.
Historically, from the 1950s to present, "we would average about 9.6 named Atlantic storms per season"–storms whose wind speed reaches at least 39 miles per hour, Mr. Lepore said. Among these 9.6 named storms, about six would develop further and become hurricanes, with winds of at least 74 miles per hour.
"Of those six hurricanes, on average, two would be 'major' or 'intense' hurricanes with at least 110-miles-per-hour wind," he said. On average, one storm or hurricane in any of these categories could land on the U.S. land per year, Mr. Lepore explained.
Compared to that historical average, NOAA is calling for 11 to 15 named storms this Atlantic hurricane season, up to 50 percent above normal. "For hurricanes, we are looking at six to nine, also in the range of up to 50 percent increase. On the 'intense' hurricane category, we are looking at the possibility of two to four," Mr. Lepore said.
The reason for this forecast is the "La Nina" phenomenon–which has cooled the equatorial Pacific Ocean but warmed the waters of the Atlantic Ocean–and the end of the an "El Nino" episode.
"Essentially, we have finished an El Nino episode, which tends to suppress hurricane activities," Mr. Lepore explained. "With El Nino no longer influencing weather in the Eastern Pacific, there is nothing to oppose the westward movement of these hurricanes. We are now in a La Nina episode," he said.
Historically, from the Texas-to-Maine coastline, southern Florida has been the area most vulnerable to Atlantic hurricanes.
From 1899 to 1998, Florida had 59 direct hurricane hits, while Texas had 36 hits. North Carolina was the third on the list, with 28 hits; Louisiana was the fourth, with 26.
"We try to keep the public, and particularly businesses, prepared if they live in hurricane-vulnerable areas. All families, businesses and municipalities need to have plans, and they have to perform vulnerability assessments," Mr. Lepore said.
"You have to figure out how far you have to move from the coast to evacuate. You often don't have to go very far, maybe tens of miles. If you are a business, you have to have a plan to keep computer data and maintain continuity of business," Mr. Lepore advised.
Mr. Lepore also added that it's not necessarily the most intense hurricanes that would cause the most devastating damage. "We point out that it only takes one storm to cause great damage. A rainstorm in Houston, from June 5-17, 2001, caused 41 deaths and over $4 billion in damages. Even tropical storms can cause great mischief," he noted.
"But now, 80 percent of 50 million people living on the coastline have never experienced direct effects of a major land-falling storm. That's an awful lot of people with no experience."
In addition to NOAA, among other forecasters predicting above average storm activity is Colorado State University, which said May 30 that the tropical storm season would see 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
© Arc, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to TMSalesOperations@arc-network.com. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.