Before I write anything else, let me say that if I really could predict what technologies were going to be hot and what werent, Id be spending this time on E-Trade (from the chateau) not writing the back page of a magazine.
People are always trying to predict the hot new technology, either to get on the bandwagon early, to know what stocks to buy, or to get jobs as columnists and consultants. Books have been written about how to predict whats going to be the Next Big Thing.
Heres my theory: To be successful commercially, a technology must first go through a Geek Acceptance Stage. If the geeks like it, its only a matter of time before its at Wal-Mart. Thats because geeks get hold of an idea, play around with it for a while, and eventually build enough of a base of support for itnot to mention word of mouththat it makes its way into the mainstream.
Personal computers are a great example. What was arguably the first personal computer, the Altair (I said arguably, so dont send me nasty letters) was, to the non-geek, just a bunch of blinking lights and some crude sound. Looking at that, no rational business would bet its money on the personal computing market. But time passed, and the geeks worked hard until (again, arguably) the first Apple made its appearance. And soon corporate America, in the form of IBM, was willing to take a chance on the PC, now that it had been geek-tested and -approved.
Look at some other hot technologies and youll realize that whats in todays business world was first in the hands of the geeks. The Internet, once strictly a haven for academics and techiespeople willing to configure terminal-emulation software, and learn cryptic programs with names like vi, rn, and elm.
Once it passed the Geek Acceptance Stage, the Net was ready for prime time, and had enough of a backbone (literally and metaphorically) to support a growing number of users. But if the geeks hadnt found the Net and found it good, we may never have had the likes of Yahoo (another geek project). It was the geeks who found ways to organize information with Gopher and, later, the World Wide Web. It was geeks who came up with the now-ubiquitous @ sign, the domain system (with its ups and downs), IP addresses, and so on.
The geeks have spoken with other technologies. MP3 was a relatively obscure music format that geeks used to exchange music files. But once reliable players and usable CD rippers began to circulate, the MP3 market took off.
That offshoot of the MP3 phenomenon, Napster, is a great example of a geek-approved technologypeer-to-peer file sharingthat is just now working its way into the general market. How will peer-to-peer affect business? Who knows? But my money says its going to be big, judging by the terabytes of files I can find on Kazaa.
Some of these technologies still have vestiges of their geekish roots, such as the price of the products: often zilch. Had corporate America developed MP3, you can bet the best music players wouldnt be free, and that the Recording Industry of America would have better things to do with its time.
Look at Linux, the king of geek-to-mainstream technology. What could be more geekish than an operating system based on Unix, created by a geek in his spare time, thats available for nothingincluding the OS itself, several GUIs, and a gazillion applications?
No one paid much attention to it, even while bemoaning Microsofts monopoly of the operating system and desktop market. No one, that is, except the geeks, who have been perfecting Linux in a monster worldwide effort to the point that this free operating system is a better line-of-business OS than Windows.
And now corporate America wakes up to it. And now corporate America starts implementing it. And now corporate America starts putting it on its mainframes and using it for business.
Where the geeks go, so goes America.
Has corporate America caught on to the fact that its geeks are its technological farm system? Probably not; the press sure hasnt. How much air time did that stupid Ginger/It/Segway thing get? But its not the geeks wholl be using themits postal workers and mall security. What does that tell you about the long-term possibilities of the thing?
So the next time youre wondering whats next?, go to the gadget guy (or gal) in your companyyou know who it isand ask, Hey, whats that you got there? You might be seeing the future. ANDREW KANTOR
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