The Atlantic Hurricane Season starts this week, and forecasters are calling for a normal number of storms—but some warn that the odds are in favor of a U.S. landfall.

Catastrophe-modeler RMS released its pre-season commentary, saying conditions remain right for the total number of tropical storms “to be near the long-term average of 10.7 tropical storms.”

RMS notes that while some existing conditions could drive higher Atlantic basin-activity, other factors, such as higher wind shear over the Atlantic, have increased “the likelihood of a near-normal season in 2012.”

Two other prognosticators are also calling for a near-normal season—but contend that the U.S. is “overdue” for a landfall.

Forecasters Weather Services International (WSI) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) each call for an Atlantic hurricane season close to the long-term average, which is 12 named storms, seven hurricanes and three intense hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger.

TSR, which is co-sponsored by Aon Benfield, rounds off its forecast to predict 13 named storms, six hurricanes and three intense hurricanes.

Of course, it only takes one storm to cause a major event, and Mark Saunders, a professor at TSR, says “uncertainties [in forecasts] remain, and we are overdue for U.S. land-falling hurricane strikes.”

WSI, a member of The Weather Channel Cos., forecasts 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two intense hurricanes.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says in its seasonal forecast that the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season will be “near normal” with nine to 15 tropical storms, and four to eight of those will strengthen into hurricanes.

Special Reports /

Hurricane Forecast for 2012: Cloudy, With Chance of Landfall

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