If the Colorado State University (CSU) meteorological team is right, insurers should expect another busy hurricane season. Now in its 30th year of issuing seasonal forecasts for the Atlantic basin, the well-respected CSU has predicted that at least one named storm will be spinning in the Atlantic Ocean for an equivalent of three months during the upcoming hurricane season, which runs from June 1 until November 30, 2013.
Perhaps of greatest consequence is the likelihood of a major land-falling U.S. hurricane, according to Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray, the atmospheric scientists responsible for CSU's forecasting. Taking current evidence of oceanic temperatures and other factors into account, Klotzbach and Gray estimate a 72-percent chance at least one of these storms will strengthen to a major hurricane and make landfall somewhere on the U.S. coast from Texas to Maine. That's just the beginning, as the pair predicts a total of 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes of Category 3—sustained winds of at least 111 to 129 miles per hour—for the 2013 season.
Of the 95 named-storm days expected, 40 of them will be occupied by a hurricane. Additionally, there is a 47-percent chance that a major hurricane slips under the Florida Peninsula to strike one of the Gulf States, which includes the west coast of Florida.
Acknowledging these numbers are well above the historical average for the last century, Klotzbach and Gray explain its annual predictions are intended to offer a best estimate of activity to be experienced during the upcoming season rather than an exact measure. To this end, CSU's predictions—and the team is far from alone in this regard—for 2012 were slightly off. Whereas the team predicted 14 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes last August, the season actually witnessed 19 named storms, 10 hurricanes and two major hurricanes during the 2012 season.
CSU adds that forecasts are based on the premise that global oceanic and atmospheric conditions—such as El Niño, sea and sea level pressures in the Atlantic basin—that preceded active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar conditions that will likely occur in the current year.
Klotzbach and Gray will release updates to their current projections on June 1 and then at the start of August. Meanwhile, other scientists and agencies are chiming in: Tropical Storm Risk, Impact Forecasting, Weather Services International and WeatherBell Analytics have shared their own hurricane forecasts.
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